Three of U.S. President Donald Trump’s top aides will meet with their Chinese counterparts in London on Monday for talks aimed at resolving a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies that has kept global markets on edge.
Agricultural markets were supported last week on trade optimism after Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping confronted weeks of brewing trade tensions in a rare leader-to-leader call.
On the weather front, rains helped improve soil moisture in parts of the U.S. Southern Plains and the Midwest, according to forecaster Vaisala.
But dryness lingers in north central Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota, northern Illinois, northern Indiana and western Ohio, according to the forecaster. That dryness could stress germination and early growth of corn and soybeans.
Ratings for French wheat and barley crops edged lower in the week to June 2, extending a decline in the past month as a dry spring has left northerly regions parched, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed on Friday.
Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2025/26 July-June season are expected to fall to 35 million metric tons in the worst scenario against a forecast of 40 million tons in 2024/25, following a lower harvest, its first deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters on Friday.
Corn
Friday’s Recap
For the fourth consecutive session, Corn futures finished higher, with the July contract settling Friday at 442’4, up 3’0. Across all maturities, a heavy 548,738 contracts were traded, with 229,798 done in the July maturity. Overall open interest dropped 12,920, or 0.78%, to 1,640,337. July fell 32,843 (5.46%), finishing at 569,163.
Technicals
July corn futures had a nice move higher on Friday but that firm trade has so far failed to materialize any meaningful follow-through with last week’s highs and the 20-day moving average acting as first resistance from 448 1/4-451. Of the Bulls can achieve consecutive closes back above this pocket, a move back towards 463 1/4-465 1/4 would be the next upside target. On the flipside, a break and close below last week’s low and a retest of the August contract lows could be in order, 421 3/4.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 463 1/4-465 1/4***
Pivot: 448 3/4-451
Support: 433 1/4-437****
Popular Options
Option trading centered around the July 450 calls with 7,060 done and the Dec 370 puts with volume of 1,813. Options with the greatest open interest are the Sep 500 call with 40,319, and the Dec 400 put with 25,217.
Volatility Update
Corn implied volatility ended the session up as CVL rose by 0.71 to close the day at 25.80, a one week high. The 30-day historical volatility closed the session unchanged for the day nan% to nan%. The CVL Skew closed the session moderately higher, gaining 0.48 to finish the day at a one month high of 4.73.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 6.9.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for December corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of 53k futures and options contracts through June 3rd. This is the largest net short since September.
