In light of today’s scheduled macroeconomic releases from the United States, the FX market’s attention will be entirely focused on the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report at 1230 PM (GMT). Therefore, we can expect heightened volatility on the EURUSD pair, especially if the labor market data surprises in either direction. A weaker-than-expected report could trigger gains for the pair, particularly considering that both the Eurozone GDP revision and retail sales figures surprised to the upside.
On the other hand, a strong NFP report could reinforce Tuesday’s JOLTS data and signal that despite the weaker ADP figures, the U.S. economy remains resilient enough that the Federal Reserve won’t risk a rate cut before Q4 2025. Such a scenario, combined with the continued strength of the U.S. economy, could support a downward move in the EURUSD pair and a rebound for the recently sold-off U.S. dollar.
United States, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) change for May:
- Actual: +126K vs +177K previous
- Private sector: +120K vs +167K previous
- Manufacturing: -5K expected vs +1K previous
- Unemployment rate: 4.2%, unchanged
- Average hourly earnings: +3.7% y/y vs +3.8% previous; +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% previous
EURUSD (D1 chart)
In a bearish scenario for the EURUSD, the double top pattern could provide bears with enough momentum to push the price back toward the 50-period EMA (orange line) around the 1.13 level. The key resistance zone is currently between 1.145 and 1.15.
Source: xStation5
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