Gold rebounds 1.8% amid strong return of risk aversion, approaching key resistance near $3,365 per ounce. The exchange of accusations between China and the US, along with further developments in the war in Ukraine, is driving capital toward safe-haven assets, reflecting investor concerns about the long-term consequences of ongoing conflicts.
After a record rally following US Liberation Day, gold flattened its trend, trading around the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA100, dark purple). A key condition for further gains is breaking through the resistance set by the recent peak near $3,365. Source: xStation5
Re-escalation of the trade war
The recent trade reset between China and the US already seemed like a too swift and smooth finale to the power-flashing contests between the world’s two largest economies. Since Friday, the previously calm dialogue has unraveled, as both sides began exchanging accusations of violating the rules recently agreed upon in Geneva.
Today, China issued complaints over “non-tariff” actions by the US administration, which Beijing sees as an act against Chinese interests. This refers mainly to the planned revocation of visas for some Chinese students in the US and tighter restrictions on American tech companies exporting to China.
According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, the US is provoking tensions, and China will respond proportionally to defend its interests. Even President Trump’s expressed “hope” for a conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping has failed to calm market sentiment.
A new episode in the war in Ukraine
The situation in Ukraine has also destabilized further, generating additional concern, particularly on European stock markets. Shortly before the resumption of talks in Istanbul, Ukraine launched a drone operation—planned for nearly 18 months—targeting strategic air units of the Russian fleet on Russian territory. In response, Russia carried out a massive missile attack on Ukraine, killing 12 people. Russian losses are estimated at $2 billion.
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