August WTI crude oil (CLQ25) Tuesday closed down -4.14 (-6.04%), and August RBOB gasoline (RBQ25) closed down -0.1282 (-5.83%).
Crude oil and gasoline sold off sharply Tuesday to 1-1/2 week lows after President Trump announced a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran conflict, reducing concerns about a disruption to Middle Eastern crude supplies and removing some of the geopolitical risk built into crude prices. Losses in crude oil accelerated on Tuesday after President Trump said that China can continue buying Iranian oil, bolstering speculation that the US may soon relieve some sanctions on Iranian crude exports.
On the positive side for crude was Tuesday’s slide in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 1-week low. Also, Tuesday’s rally in the S&P 500 to a 4-month high demonstrated confidence in the economic outlook and was supportive of energy demand.
Concern about a global oil glut is negative for crude prices. On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to a 411,000 bpd crude production hike for July after raising output by the same amount for June. Saudi Arabia has signaled that additional similar-sized increases in crude output could follow, which is viewed as a strategy to reduce oil prices and punish overproducing OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production. OPEC+ had previously planned to restore production between January and late 2025, but now that production cut won’t be fully restored until September 2026. OPEC May crude production rose +200,000 bpd to 27.54 million bpd.
Gasoline prices have support from the American Automobile Association (AAA) projection that a record 61.6 million people will travel by car this Fourth of July holiday (June 28 to July 6), up 2.2% from last year and a sign of stronger gasoline demand.
Oil prices continue to be undercut by tariff concerns, as President Trump recently stated that he intends to send letters to dozens of US trading partners within one to two weeks, setting unilateral tariffs ahead of the July 9 deadline that followed his 90-day pause.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -13% w/w to 79.66 million bbl in the week ended June 20.
The consensus is that Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude inventories will fall by -1.1 million bbl, and gasoline supplies will climb by +500,000 bbl.
Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of June 13 were -10.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -16.7% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending June 14 was unchanged w/w at 13.431 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd from the week of December 6.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending June 20 fell by -1 to a 3-3/4 year low of 438 rigs. Over the past 2-1/2 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen from the 5-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
