The yen and antipodeans are most under pressure at the time of writing, but it was EUR and SEK that initially took the biggest hits in G10 as markets reopened, which could signal they’re the two G10 currencies most vulnerable to further meaningful geopolitical escalation, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
EUR/USD may not deviate from the 1.1450-1.1600 range
“Both have been among the top G10 performers year-to-date alongside NOK, but unlike Norway’s currency, EUR and SEK are negatively exposed to oil prices due to their countries’ energy dependence.”“For now, as discussed in the USD section above, the impact of geopolitics on FX remains small. On four occasions, EUR/USD tested the 1.1450 support level since the June 13 Israel strikes on Iran, yet markets lack conviction that this conflict will be prolonged or that the dollar has much to gain from that. Ultimately, it may still take some domestic macro event, especially in the US, to drive any substantial deviation from the 1.1450-1.1600 range.”“We have a slight preference for a return to 1.140 rather than another acceleration in the EUR/USD multi-month rally over the coming weeks. But we’ll have to play it by ear given the highly volatile geopolitical situation.”
