Euro (EUR) fell on softer than expected French CPI, signs of progress on EU-US trade talks and broad US Dollar (USD) short covering. Pair was last at 1.1321, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias
“EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said he has a ‘good call’ with US Secretary of Commerce Lutnick. Earlier, French President Macron said European Commission Ursula and Trump had a ‘good exchange’. Trump himself also said it was ‘a very nice call’, and the delay on tariff imposition would allow for the 2 sides to work on a deal.”
“EUR’s move lower was in line with our caution for the risk of a pullback in the near term. Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias now while RSI fell from near overbought conditions. On price action, rising wedge pattern may be forming. This can be associated with a bearish reversal.”
“We continue to watch price action. Support at 1.1280 (21 DMA), 1.1235 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 low to high) and 1.1150 (50 DMA). Resistance at 1.1420/30 levels. Decisive break puts next resistance at 1.1570 (recent high). Failing which, the pair may revert to trading recent range. Day brings 1y, 3y inflation expectations.”
