GoldMarketsTechnical Analysis
Gold price sticks to intraday losses near multi-week low as traders await US PCE data
- Gold price weakens below $3,300 as a positive risk tone undermines safe-haven demand.
- Fed rate cut bets and a bearish USD could support the XAU/USD pair and limit losses.
- Traders now look to the release of the US PCE Price Index for a fresh directional impetus.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price retains its negative bias ahead of US PCE Price Index
- The Commerce Department’s third and final estimate released on Thursday showed that the US economy contracted more than previously estimated at the start of 2025 on the back of muted consumer spending and tariff-related disruptions. In fact, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell at an annualized rate of 0.5% during the January-March period, a steeper decline than the 0.2% reported in the second estimate.
- A separate report published by the US Labor Department showed that the number of Americans filing unemployment benefits for the first time dropped by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 236,000 for the week ended June 21. However, Continuing Claims rose by 37,000 to 1.974 million for the week ending June 14. That marked the highest level since November 2021 and suggested a sluggish hiring environment.
- The data fueled speculations that the US Unemployment Rate might tick up to at least 4.3% in June from 4.2% in May. This could force the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle in July and lower borrowing costs further by the end of this year. The outlook drags the US Dollar to its lowest level since March 2022 and might continue to lend some support to the non-yielding Gold price.
- Investors now await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data, due later this Friday, for further cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path. Consensus estimates point to a 0.1% monthly increase in the core PCE Price Index and a 2.6% annual rise in May. A surprisingly stronger print would validate Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s wait-and-see approach to rate cuts and boost the USD.
- In fact, Powell reiterated this week that the Fed is well-positioned to wait to cut interest rates until they have a better handle on the impact of steep tariffs on consumer prices. The comments prompted fresh criticism from US President Donald Trump, who has been calling for lower interest rates. Moreover, reports suggest that Trump was considering naming Powell’s successor by September or October.
- The development fuels concerns about the potential erosion of the Fed’s independence, which should limit any immediate USD positive reaction to the crucial inflation data. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD pair is to the upside and any further slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity.
Gold price could weaken further towards the $3,245 support amid bearish technical setup
