U.S. credit‑rating downgrade lifts safe‑haven assets 📈
Gold rebounds 1.6 %, testing resistance around 3,250 USD as investors react to a fresh bout of “Sell USA” sentiment. After a week of uninterrupted gains in U.S. equities, risk appetite faded when Moody’s cut the United States’ sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA.
Key points from Moody’s assessment
- Debt‑to‑GDP keeps climbing: The U.S. ratio has risen for more than a decade and already exceeds that of comparable economies (98 % in 2024). Despite the Trump administration’s stated budget‑cut plans, Moody’s projects the ratio will reach 135 % before 2035.
- Debt‑service costs are ballooning: Rising yields — fueled by trade‑policy turmoil and stagflation worries — are making interest payments an ever‑larger burden. In 2024 interest consumed 18 % of federal revenue, double the 2021 share.
Gold also benefits indirectly from softer momentum in U.S. equities, which opened lower on Monday as investors turned more cautious. Budget Lab estimates at Yale University suggest that, even after the recent easing of U.S.–China tariffs, 40 % of the negative effects of duties in place before 12 May will still be felt in the U.S. economy.
GOLD (D1, H1)
Daily chart: The decline halted at the 50‑day exponential moving average (EMA50, orange) near 3,200 USD/oz.
Hourly chart: MACD and RSI momentum now favors buyers. A key resistance may emerge at 3,270 USD/oz—the area of the EMA200 and the 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement, which also coincides with a previous strong price cluster.
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