The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Vietnam’s economic growth to slow to 5.4% this year, down from 7.09% last year, under a high-tariff scenario. The country has held several rounds of negotiations with the US to strike a deal and avoid the Trump administration’s proposed 46% tariff on its exports. “The outlook is heavily dependent on the outcome of trade negotiations and is constrained by elevated global uncertainty around trade policies and economic growth,” the IMF said in a statement on Wednesday.
The agency noted that under the high-tariff scenario, economic growth would decelerate further next year, but added that “if global trade tensions subside, the economic outlook would improve significantly.” Last year, shipments to the US accounted for about 30% of Vietnam’s GDP. Vietnam’s GDP grew by 6.93% year-on-year in Q1 of 2025, easing from a 7.55% expansion in Q4 of 2024, while marking the softest pace of growth since Q1 of 2024.
