Interest rate expectations remain largely the same amid lack of changes in macro picture

It’s been one of the longest consolidations in a while as the lack of key macro developments keeps traders waiting for something new

• Fed: 49 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 55 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 38 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 41 bps (73% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 75 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 31 bps (68% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 53 bps (72% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

*for the SNB, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 18 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

We can see that the market pricing remained largely unchanged since the last update. We’ve been in this consolidating type of environment for a couple of weeks now as the lack of key macro changes kept traders waiting for something.