The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index held steady at -4.0 in June 2025, matching the previous month’s reading and falling short of market expectations of -1. The data indicates that manufacturing activity in the region remains subdued, with signs of slowing demand and weakening labor market conditions. The new orders index declined, though it remained in positive territory, while the shipments index improved and turned positive.
However, both metrics continued to trend below their long-term non-recession averages. Notably, the employment index dropped into negative territory, hitting its lowest level since May 2020, pointing to a contraction in factory jobs. Although price pressures eased somewhat, both input and output price indexes remain historically elevated. Meanwhile, the survey’s forward-looking indicators suggest waning optimism, with fewer firms expecting growth over the next six months
