GoldTechnical Analysis

XAU/USD recovers further from one-week trough amid a broadly weaker USD

  • Gold price reverses an intraday slide to sub-$3,300 levels amid a weaker USD.
  • Rising geopolitical risks lend additional support to the safe-haven precious metal.
  • Friday’s US NFP report tempered Fed rate cut bets and might cap the XAU/USD.

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buying following an intraday slide to sub-$3,300 levels, or a one-week low, and climbs to a fresh daily top during the early part of the European session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) kicks off the new week on a weaker note and reverses a major part of the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)-inspired gains. This, in turn, assists the commodity to snap a two-day losing streak.

Meanwhile, investors remain on edge ahead of the key US-China trade talks later today in London. This, along with persistent geopolitical risks, assists the safe-haven Gold price to stall its retracement slide from a nearly one-month high – levels just above the $3,400 mark touched last Thursday. However, reduced bets for imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year might cap the non-yielding yellow metal.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price draws some support from weaker USD, safe-haven buying

  • The closely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls report published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday showed that the economy added 139K new jobs in May compared to the previous month’s downwardly revised reading of 147K. This, however, was still higher than the market expectation for 130K.
  • Additional details revealed that the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%, as anticipated, while Average Hourly Earnings remained unchanged at 3.9%, beating consensus estimates of 3.7%. The data prompted market participants to trim bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
  • The outlook keeps US Treasury bond yields across maturities elevated and exerts some downward pressure on the Gold price at the start of a new week. However, a combination of factors holds back the XAU/USD bears from placing aggressive bets and helps limit any further intraday downfall.
  • Following the report, US President Donald Trump intensified his pressure campaign against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and urged him to cut rates by a full percentage point. Moreover, traders are still pricing in a greater possibility that the Fed will lower borrowing costs in September.
  • This, along with concerns about the US government’s financial health, fails to assist the US Dollar to capitalize on the post-NFP gains. Furthermore, an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, amid stalled peace talks, keeps the geopolitical risks in play and supports the safe-haven commodity.
  • Top US and Chinese officials will meet in London on Monday for negotiations aimed at defusing the high-stakes trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies. US President Donald Trump said last week that a call with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping resulted in a very positive conclusion.

Gold price is likely to confront stiff resistance near the $3.352-3,353 horizontal zone

From a technical perspective, the Gold price showed an intraday resilience below the $3,300 mark and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. This makes it prudent to wait for acceptance below the said handle before positioning for deeper losses. The XAU/USD pair might then accelerate the slide below the $3,283-3,282 region, towards the $3,246-3,245 area (May 29 swing low) en route to the $3,200 neighborhood.

On the flip side, any meaningful move higher is likely to confront a stiff barrier and attract fresh sellers near the $3.352-3,353 horizontal zone. This, in turn, should cap the Gold price near the $3,377-3,378 resistance. A sustained strength beyond the latter, however, could trigger a short-covering rally and allow the XAU/USD bulls to make a fresh attempt to conquer the $3,400 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards the $3,425-3,430 region en route to the all-time top, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April.

US Dollar PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.23%-0.27%-0.42%-0.11%-0.32%-0.46%-0.13%
EUR0.23%-0.07%-0.20%0.11%-0.07%-0.24%0.08%
GBP0.27%0.07%-0.06%0.17%-0.01%-0.19%0.14%
JPY0.42%0.20%0.06%0.31%0.03%-0.11%0.16%
CAD0.11%-0.11%-0.17%-0.31%-0.24%-0.35%-0.03%
AUD0.32%0.07%0.01%-0.03%0.24%-0.17%0.20%
NZD0.46%0.24%0.19%0.11%0.35%0.17%0.33%
CHF0.13%-0.08%-0.14%-0.16%0.03%-0.20%-0.33%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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